Ultra-Processed Foods May Cause Type 2 Diabetes? What the Research Shows

Ultra-Processed Foods May Cause Type 2 Diabetes? What the Research Shows

Ultra-processed foods have become a major part of the modern diet. They are convenient, inexpensive, heavily marketed, and often designed to be easy to eat in large amounts.

Growing research suggests that eating more ultra-processed foods is associated with a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Scientists believe this may be related not only to sugar, unhealthy fats, and excess calories, but also to food additives, packaging chemicals, changes in the gut microbiome, and chronic inflammation.

What Are Ultra-Processed Foods?

Ultra-processed foods are industrially manufactured products made with ingredients and processes that are rarely used in home cooking.

They often contain refined starches, sugars, processed oils, flavour enhancers, preservatives, emulsifiers, artificial sweeteners, and other additives.

Common examples include:

• Soft drinks and other sweetened beverages
• Processed meats
• Packaged desserts and candy
• Instant noodles
• Frozen ready-made meals
• Fast food
• Packaged snack foods (even those with ‘healthy’ labels like high protein, gluten-free, dairy-free, low fat, low sugar)
• Sweetened breakfast cereals

Not every processed food is ultra-processed. Frozen vegetables, canned beans, plain yogurt, and many simple whole-grain foods are processed but can still be nutritious.

What Does the Research Show?

Large prospective studies and meta-analyses consistently find that people who eat more ultra-processed foods are more likely to develop type 2 diabetes than those who eat less (Chen et al., 2023; Srour et al., 2019; Lane et al., 2024).

Across several studies, every 10% increase in ultra-processed food intake was associated with about a 10% to 17% higher risk of type 2 diabetes (Chen et al., 2023; Kim et al., 2025; Moradi et al., 2021; Dicken et al., 2024).

When researchers compared people with the highest intake to those with the lowest, the highest consumers had approximately a 31% to 74% greater risk in several analyses (Moradi et al., 2021; Kim et al., 2025; Delpino et al., 2021).

Similar findings have been reported in the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Europe, Korea, and Brazil.

For example:

• In three large American studies involving nearly 198,000 adults, those with the highest intake had a 46% greater risk of type 2 diabetes than those with the lowest intake (Chen et al., 2023).
• In a French study of more than 104,000 adults, every 10-percentage-point increase in ultra-processed food intake was associated with a 15% higher risk (Srour et al., 2019).
• In a European study involving more than 311,000 people, each 10% increase was associated with a 17% higher risk (Dicken et al., 2024).

These studies are observational, so they cannot prove that ultra-processed foods directly cause diabetes. However, the consistency of the findings across many populations strengthens the concern.

Are All Ultra-Processed Foods Equally Harmful?

No.

The foods most consistently linked with a higher diabetes risk include:

• Processed meats
• Sugar-sweetened drinks
• Artificially sweetened drinks
• Ready-to-eat mixed dishes
• Some sauces and condiments

Some packaged breads, cereals, yogurt products, and dairy-based foods have shown weaker or neutral associations in certain studies.

This may be because the ultra-processed food category includes many very different products. Some still contain fibre, whole grains, or fermented dairy, while others are high in refined carbohydrates, additives, and calories.

How Might Ultra-Processed Foods Increase Diabetes Risk?

Type 2 diabetes develops when the body becomes less responsive to insulin, the hormone that helps move glucose from the blood into the cells.

Weight gain is one important pathway. Ultra-processed foods are often high in calories, low in fibre, quickly eaten, and less filling. This can make it easier to overeat and gain visceral fat (belly fat) around the midsection – the type of fat that most commonly creates chronic inflammation.

However, weight gain does not appear to explain the entire association. Studies still find an increased diabetes risk after adjusting for body weight, calorie intake, and overall diet quality (Du et al., 2024; Srour et al., 2019).

Researchers are now studying several additional mechanisms.

Gut Health and Chronic Inflammation

The gut microbiome is the community of microorganisms living in the digestive tract. It helps regulate digestion, immunity, inflammation, and metabolism.

Some food additives may alter the balance of gut bacteria and weaken the gut barrier. This may allow bacterial products to enter the bloodstream and trigger chronic low-grade inflammation.

Over time, this inflammation may interfere with insulin signaling and blood sugar regulation.

Emulsifiers

Emulsifiers help ingredients such as oil and water remain mixed. They are commonly found in salad dressings, ice cream, sauces, plant-based milks, processed cheeses, and packaged desserts.

Research suggests that some emulsifiers may change the gut microbiome, increase intestinal permeability, and promote inflammation.

In a French study of more than 104,000 adults, higher intakes of several emulsifiers, including carrageenan, guar gum, xanthan gum, and sodium citrate, were associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (Salamé et al., 2024).

This does not prove that emulsifiers directly cause diabetes, but it raises concern about frequent, long-term exposure.

Artificial Sweeteners

Artificial sweeteners are often used to reduce sugar and calories, but some may still affect metabolism and also cause weight gain.

Research suggests that sweeteners such as aspartame, sucralose, and saccharin may alter gut bacteria, affect insulin release, and interfere with glucose regulation (Simmons et al., 2014; Barra et al., 2025).

The evidence is mixed, and more human studies are needed. However, artificially sweetened drinks have been associated with a higher diabetes risk in some large observational studies.

Packaging Chemicals

Some chemicals can move from food packaging into food.

Bisphenol A, or BPA, is an endocrine-disrupting chemical used in some plastics and food containers. Laboratory and observational studies suggest that BPA may interfere with insulin signaling, reduce glucose uptake by muscle cells, increase inflammation, and contribute to insulin resistance (Akash et al., 2022; Kulsange et al., 2024).

Some BPA replacements, including BPS and BPF, may have similar metabolic effects.

Compounds Created During Processing

Industrial cooking and manufacturing can produce compounds that are not naturally present in the original food.

One example is acrylamide, which can form when starchy foods are cooked at high temperatures. It may be found in French fries, potato chips, crackers, cookies, and some breakfast cereals.

Acrylamide has been linked with metabolic dysfunction in laboratory and animal research, although evidence in humans remains limited (Vallianou et al., 2025).

It Is Probably the Overall Pattern That Matters

The increased diabetes risk is unlikely to come from one ingredient alone.

Ultra-processed foods may affect health through several pathways working together:

• Excess calorie intake
• Weight gain
• Low fibre intake
• Rapid blood sugar rises
• Changes in the gut microbiome
• Chronic inflammation
• Food additives
• Packaging chemicals
• Processing contaminants
• Impaired insulin signaling

Many ultra-processed products also contain several additives and contaminants at the same time. Most safety testing evaluates these substances individually, so the long-term effects of combined exposure are not fully understood.

Practical Ways to Eat Fewer Ultra-Processed Foods

You do not need to eliminate every packaged food.

A more realistic goal is to gradually replace some ultra-processed foods with foods that are closer to their natural form.

For example:

• Choose regular oatmeal instead of sweetened breakfast cereal.
• Choose water or unsweetened tea instead of soft drinks.
• Choose fruit and nuts instead of packaged desserts.
• Choose eggs, fish, beans, or fresh meat instead of processed meats.
• Choose plain yogurt instead of heavily sweetened yogurt desserts.
• Cook extra portions of simple meals and freeze them for busy days.

When reading labels, look for products with recognizable ingredients and fewer additives. However, the overall quality of the food matters more than simply counting ingredients.

The Bottom Line

Higher ultra-processed food intake is consistently associated with a greater risk of type 2 diabetes.

The strongest evidence comes from large observational studies, so it cannot prove direct cause and effect. However, the dose-response pattern and consistency across many countries make the relationship difficult to ignore.

Ultra-processed foods may increase diabetes risk through weight gain, low fibre intake, gut disruption, chronic inflammation, food additives, packaging chemicals, and impaired insulin signaling.

The most practical approach is not perfection. It is to make whole and minimally processed foods the foundation of your diet while reducing the ultra-processed foods you eat most often.

Want to dive deeper into nutrition? Check out my Healthy Nutrition Playlist on YouTube, packed with science-backed Wild Wisdom and practical strategies to help you uplevel your health!